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more... |
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The
pessimism comes as consumers have dealt with record-high gas and
food prices.
Consumer spending was virtually
flat in July, rising one-tenth of a point to 86.1, as a rise in
economic confidence among consumers during the last week of July
kept the Discover U.S. Spending Monitor from falling to a new
low. Despite the late rise in economic confidence, the Monitor
had record numbers of consumers who rated the economy as poor,
and who felt their personal finances were getting worse.
The pessimism comes as consumers have dealt with record-high gas
and food prices. Even with oil prices declining significantly
during the latter half of July, the drop did not result in less
spending from consumers. It only appears to have temporarily
halted an increase of spending from consumers in the coming
month, as had been the pattern previously.
Declining home and asset values also has affected consumer
spending behavior, according to the July Monitor, and may be
contributing to the pessimistic views a majority of consumers
have toward their personal finances. Adding these factors to
high gas and food prices, consumers continue to be cautious with
their spending, lending little help to the weak economy.
Consumers Continue to Trim Discretionary Spending
Eighty-four percent of consumers spent the same or more in July
as they did in June and 83 percent expect to spend the same or
more in August. These numbers remained virtually unchanged from
last month’s Monitor, and remain at or near record highs.
Consumers also showed little change in their attitudes toward
discretionary spending in July. While there was a 2.5-point drop
in the number of consumers expecting to spend more on household
expenses like gas and groceries, the drop did not correlate with
a rise in discretionary spending. In fact, consumers continued
their cutbacks in July on discretionary entertainment purchases,
home improvement purchases, major personal purchases and savings
and investment purchases with the number of consumers spending
the same or less remaining the same as last month.
The drop in oil prices didn’t spur consumers to spend more on
entertainment and vacation expenses. More than 69 percent have
cut back on entertainment expenses and 62 percent have changed
their vacation plans, both Monitor highs.
Furthermore, the Monitor revealed for the first time that
declining home values and investment portfolios are affecting
consumer spending. Nearly 50 percent of consumers who expressed
concern over decreasing home values said they’ve reduced
spending. And 52 percent of consumers concerned over decreasing
investment portfolios also cut back on their spending. Major
purchases like a new car, vacations, computers or appliances
were the first spending area to cut by consumers concerned about
decreasing home values (42%) and decreasing investment assets
(41%).
“While the Monitor has shown the effect that rising energy and
food prices can have on the economic and spending confidence of
consumers, we are now learning that decreasing home and asset
values may weigh just as heavily on their confidence,” said
Margo Georgiadis, executive vice president and chief marketing
officer for Discover Financial Services. “Consumers are facing a
headwind from several directions, since it is unlikely that gas
prices will return to last year’s levels, home values are still
declining and the stock market has been bearish.”
Despite Higher Spending, Consumers Still Have Money Left Over
A bright spot in this month’s Monitor was that for the sixth
straight month, the number of consumers who say they have money
left over after paying monthly bills has inched upwards. A clear
majority, nearly 53 percent, say they have a cushion at month’s
end. Of those who do have money left over, 29 percent reported
having less money left over than the previous month. That’s an
improvement of two points over last month’s totals.
The improving numbers may have to do with the fact that there
was a 1-point drop (42 percent) in July in the number of
consumers expecting an added expense or income shortfall over
the next 30 days. This is the first time this number has gone
down in six months.
“As more people begin to eke out a few extra dollars each month
after paying their bills, it will be interesting to see whether
that translates into more confidence in the economy, and
especially personal finances,” said Georgiadis. “With so much
uncertainty and bad news about the economy, it’s no wonder
people have remained cautious with their spending.”
Consumer Views on the Economy Continue to Trend Downward
While the last week of July showed a significant increase in the
number of consumers rating the economy as good or excellent, it
was not enough to offset the record number of consumers who
rated the economy as poor for the month. Overall, 54 percent
give the economy a poor mark, slightly higher than last month.
However, there was a 1-point drop to 73 percent in the number of
consumers who felt the economy was getting worse.
Sagging economic confidence and higher expenditures has resulted
in declining optimism about personal finances. While the number
of consumers who rate their personal finances as good or
excellent has consistently stayed between 38 and 40 percent over
the last six months, the number of consumers who feel their
personal finances are getting worse has steadily increased. A
Monitor high, 55 percent feel their personal finances are
getting worse.
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